Halving Sparks Fears of Bitcoin Collapse | Price Predictions and Mining Costs
Edited By
Akira Yamamoto
A rising conversation in crypto circles highlights concerns that Bitcoin's halving could trigger a catastrophic market drop. With estimates showing that around 30% of miners are already operating unprofitably, users worry about potential repercussions as we near the end of 2025 and into early 2026.
The Current Situation
Bitcoin's price hovers around $95,000, leading many miners to struggle with profitability when considering all-in costs like hardware depreciation, energy, and labor. As noted by one forum commenter, "If it becomes unprofitable to mine, miners will just turn off their miners." This sentiment reflects widespread anxiety about mining sustainability given current and projected market conditions.
"With a possible black swan event arriving, a collapse in the entire cryptocurrency market isn't far-fetched," a source shared, linking historical events like the 2008 financial crisis and the 2019 pandemic to upcoming forecasts.
Miners Face a Tough Future
Post-halving production costs for many industrial miners are shooting up to $80,000 - $100,000 per Bitcoin. At critical price points (around $70,000 to $65,000), more than half of miners could face unprofitability, which would lead to widespread shutdowns of older equipment. In essence, if Bitcoin dips below $60,000, experts predict a mass exit from the mining space.
Divergent Perspectives
Sentiment in user boards shows a stark divide:
Skeptics warn about imminent crisis, drawing parallels to the 1929 stock market crash.
Optimists, however, defend Bitcoin's value, stating, "Halving is what makes Bitcoin so valuable. If Bitcoin was really 'unprofitable,' miners would not mine."
This reality indicates a belief among many miners that the cryptocurrency will sustain and appreciate over time. A commenter expressed, "Bring on $76k," challenging the pessimistic forecasts.
Key Takeaways
🔍 Approximately 30% of Bitcoin miners currently struggle with profitability.
💥 At prices below $70,000, expect 30%-40% of global hashrate to turn unprofitable.
🏆 "Bitcoin mining continues forever, whatever the price," insists a supporter, highlighting its self-adjusting nature.
As debates escalate across forums and trading platforms, many investors and miners face a pressing question: can Bitcoin withstand the pressures of rising costs and dwindling profitability? The upcoming months could define its future in the crypto landscape.
Predicting the Next Moves in the Bitcoin Market
With the halving event approaching, there's a strong chance that volatility will increase, pushing Bitcoin's price to test critical support levels. Experts estimate a 60% probability that if Bitcoin hovers around $65,000 to $70,000, many miners will shut down operations, exacerbating supply shortage fears. If costs continue to rise while prices drop, there's also a 40% chance of a quick rebound back to $80,000, fueled by a wave of panic buying from investors seeking cheaper entry points. Ultimately, whether Bitcoin can maintain its value will hinge on the miners' resilience and the overall market sentiment leading into 2026.
Reflecting on Past Resilience through Fire
An intriguing parallel can be drawn with the Great Chicago Fire of 1871, which devastated a vibrant city yet led to its remarkable revitalization. Much like miners today grappling with cost pressures, Chicago's citizens faced impending doom but pooled their resources to rebuild stronger and more innovative. The aftermath brought about new architectural styles and urban planning, transforming the city. Similarly, despite the looming threats facing Bitcoin and its miners, there's potential for growth and adaptation, reshaping the crypto landscape into something even more robust.