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Analyzing the trends: when does the bitcoin bear market start?

Bear Market Season Approaches | Users React to Crypto Market Trends

By

Daniel Kim

Jul 15, 2025, 04:43 PM

Edited By

Omar El-Sayed

2 minutes needed to read

A graph showing a declining trend in Bitcoin prices, symbolizing a bear market.
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A growing number of people anticipate a bear market onset between November 2025 and March 2026, amid ongoing speculation about Bitcoin's price movements. Many contributors on forums urge caution, suggesting previous cycles heavily influence current trends and offer predictions based on cyclic data.

Market Predictions Generate Mixed Reactions

As discussions heat up, insights about potential market behavior have emerged:

  • July to September poses a potential rally, which might be followed by a correction. Several commenters predict another rally could occur later in the year, specifically in November and December. "July and August may rally before corrections in September," one user notes.

  • Others estimate longer timelines, pointing to previous cycles that suggest bottoms and peaks fall within predictable ranges. "If we follow past trends, we might see a bottom around November 2026," a commenter stated. Another shared, "The last cycle was about 550 days until all-time highs. If history repeats, expect similar patterns."

  • Some voices in the community are skeptical about the timeliness of the bear market, suggesting that many will attempt to sell before the market dips.

"People who have been around for a few rodeos will try to front-run it," one user expressed. This underscores a tactical approach many seem ready to take, particularly as the market fluctuates.

Key Insights from Users

People’s beliefs reflect a mix of optimism and caution:

  • ⏳ Timing is debated: Some believe if patterns hold, October 2025 could mark the cycle's peak.

  • ⚠️ Sell early mentality: Expect moves as people try to capitalize on market strength before anticipated downturns.

  • πŸ€” Revisiting previous cycles: Many participants look to historical data for current market clues, suggesting adjustments in investing strategies.

Overall sentiment across these discussions leans towards caution, with predictions highlighting November and March as tentative pivot months, urging traders to be equipped for possible volatility. As these theories circulate, it remains to be seen how the crypto market will respond in the latter half of 2025.

Shifting Market Sentiments

As the crypto landscape unfolds, strong indicators suggest that investors should brace for fluctuations in the coming months. Experts estimate a 60% chance that a bear market will emerge in early 2026, as many anticipate selling pressure will push prices down significantly. Anticipated key dates like November 2025 and March 2026 stand out, with nearly half of the traders on forums believing these months will mark critical pivots in market sentiment. Combined with historical trends, these predictions indicate volatility ahead, as past cycles have shown similar patterns. With many people adjusting their strategies, it’s crucial to remain vigilant amidst these changing tides.

The Ripple Effect of Early Blockbuster Films

Drawing a parallel to the cinematic world, consider the launch of the original "Star Wars" in the late '70s. This film revolutionized the way movies were marketed and consumed, igniting a frenzy that led many studios to invest heavily in blockbuster films. Just as current crypto investors are scanning past behaviors to gauge future moves, Hollywood executives at the time were navigating uncharted waters, resulting in massive financial successes but also notable flops. These shifts offer a reminder that while excitement can drive the market, caution must also be at the forefront to avoid costly mistakes.